Rich dad said, “The trouble with getting rich
quickly without a parachute is that you fall farther and faster. Lots of easy
money makes people think they are financial geniuses when in fact, they become
financial fools.” Guide to Investing
With the Nigerian capital market now agog with activity, the general public is getting increasingly interested in investing in stocks. Many newspapers, both fledgling and established, now dedicate a significant proportion of their articles to the stock market. The media support is massive and a growing number of people are making more money than they ever thought was possible in just a few months. The Nigerian Stock Market has being bullish (having an upward trend) this year and the excitement is almost feverish. This is a good sign. But like everything that has an advantage there is always a disadvantage lurking in the corner. The idea is to weigh both sides and make a decision for or against. Unfortunately, this is presently absent in the market.
The Nigerian economy is growing (at least relative to what it was before 2005) amazingly; international debts are being paid off, foreign reserves are enjoying a near geometric growth, there has been a tremendous influx of foreign investors, a stronger naira, steady execution of huge projects e.g. Tinapa, the list goes on and on, this has reflected on the stock exchange but has also left an inconspicuous financial cancer in its wake. Lots of Nigerians are investing without any knowledge of investing at all!
Tracing back our historical calendars by three years, we encounter a different economy. We encounter a much less publicized stock exchange, several small (or tiny) banks, foreign investors with a leprous attitude to the idea of investing in Nigeria, and, probably most importantly, Nigerian people who literally had to be cajoled to invest in the stock market. Now, fast forward three years to present day, these same people with little or no idea of what the stock market is in 2004 now consider themselves financial supermen/women. Hardly a day passes without a fabulous story of fantastic gains: “I invested in Intercontinental bank plc at N6.00 now it is N27.00” or “I invested in Oceanic Bank International plc at N5.30 now it is N19.53” or “I invested in Zenith Bank plc at N11.69 now it is N42.00” the stories are endless. People do not realize that these where just cases of luck as the stock market at the time was flooded with sound businesses with sound managements at their reins so one could just close her eyes and invest in the most appealing company (an emotional judgment) and reap profits. They also do not realize that these where cases of forced fundamental investing. At the time companies where mandated to provide financial statements and provide the public with an honest view of their financial health. Most of those companies could have been given a pass mark and the present bull market would have been met with expectation and not excitement thus keeping a level head in an increasingly mad world, had these people saved some time to go through their prospectuses. As time goes on, such opportunities WILL become rarer and only financial literates will spot them and take advantage of them.
What is worrisome however, is this; with a confidence underpinned by fatter accounts, these people are now turning their interests to the secondary market, they have registered with various stock broking firms and even have CSCS accounts (Central Securities and Clearing System accounts). Their intentions are directed in one direction; to trade in stocks. They want to make quick money. They are fascinated by Fidelity bank plc going to over a hundred percent in a few weeks or Dangote Sugar Refinery plc crossing the hundred percent mark in 3weeks etc. In essence, they are engaging in Technical investing without any knowledge of it (or Fundamental investing for that matter) at all. This means that from now till an infinite time in future these people will likely lose their money in either unfavorable market conditions or outright bad deals. Actually it could occur in two ways; they either win or lose depending mainly on luck.
There is a way out though, a way that could lead to a greater occurrence of winning. And that is learning what technical investing is and its application to the stock market. So what is technical investing? The next article gives a brief introduction to whet your appetite to research the subject. Have a happy research
NB: Many of the Banks which crossed the Central Bank of Nigeria’s deadline of July 2005 to consolidate have given sizeable returns to their investors. However there are some that didn’t quite make it. I know of a man who borrowed $8000 to invest in All State Trust Bank plc public offer, the bank went under taking the borrowed funds with it and leaving the man biting his fingers in regret. But this kind of stories has been overshadowed by the success of the others
The present situation in the market actually makes endless activities available to the True Technical Investor. A Technical Investor who understands the vicissitudes of the market could make a killing from the market’s present condition, investing mainly by monitoring the market sentiments.
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